Evidence-first · AI & B2B software
The numbers behind the AI economy, traced to their sources.
Analysis of AI, B2B software and the money underneath, where every figure traces to a filing, an earnings call or a named dataset. No invented numbers, ever.
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The anchor postMoney & Market Power
All 10 →- 001AI Circular Deals: Who Actually Pays Whom, and How MuchNvidia's up to $100B commitment to OpenAI was finalised at $30B. A map of the AI circular deals: what is signed, what is only intent, and why it matters.$100B → $30B
- 002AI Debt Issuance: The Credit Story Behind the BuildAI-related debt issuance is on track for roughly $570B in 2026. Hyperscaler bond issuance quadrupled. How the build is being funded, and why it changed.~$570B
- 003AI Took 61% of Venture Capital. What Happens to OthersAI startups took 61% of global venture funding in 2025, up from 30% in 2022. What that concentration does to hiring, valuations and exits outside AI.61%
- 004Anthropic IPO: The Enterprise Listing That Resets PricingAnthropic filed confidentially on 1 June 2026 for an October listing. A $47B run rate, 85% enterprise revenue, and why the mix matters more than the number.$47B
- 005Dot-Com vs AI Bubble: Six Metrics Where It Breaks DownEveryone compares 2026 to 2000. On six metrics, from P/E ratios to profitability, the comparison mostly fails. Here is the one place it does hold.60x vs 23x
- 006GenAI ROI: Why 95% of Pilots Show No Return, and Who DoesMIT found 95% of GenAI pilots show no measurable P&L return. What the 5% did differently, where the money is really being made, and how to measure your own.95%
- 007Inference Costs Are Rising. The Software Margin MythClassic software had near-zero marginal cost. AI does not. Why per-token price cuts have not produced falling bills, and what it means for AI gross margins.Rising
- 008OpenAI IPO: What a Delay Past 2026 Actually SignalsOpenAI filed confidentially in June 2026, then weighed a delay rather than list below $1T. What the numbers say about why, and what each outcome means.$852B
- 009The SaaSpocalypse: How Software Lost Its Valuation PremiumEarly 2026 erased hundreds of billions in software market cap on the bet that AI replaces SaaS. What happened, and whether the repricing was rational.Q1 2026
SaaSpocalypse
All 4 →- 01035% of Point SaaS Gets Absorbed by Agents. Start the ClockRoughly 35% of point-product SaaS is projected to be absorbed into agent ecosystems by 2030. Which categories are structurally exposed, and which are not.~35%
- 011Build vs Buy Just Flipped. The Procurement Case BrokeFounders are replacing tool categories with internal builds because agents made building cheap. The full cost comparison, and what the build case omits.~35%
- 012Harvey vs Thomson Reuters: The First Real Incumbent TestHarvey reached an $11B valuation on roughly $190M ARR selling against legal research incumbents. Whether the displacement is real, or additive, on the numbers.$11B
- 013MCP: The Standards Fight That Decides the Agent StackMCP went from one company's experiment to a Linux Foundation standard with 97M monthly SDK downloads. What it settles, what it does not, and who benefits.~97M